John M. Bragg, FSA
Geoffery Crofts, FSA
Faye Albert, FSA                          

Harold I. Cohen, FSA

   Bragg Associates Actuaries
   

      

 


Bragg Study of Mortality by Policy Size Groups

Raw Data Study, on a Subset of All Bragg Data
Exposures total $ 1.234 trillion. Actual deaths total $ 2.141 billion
Used in the Construction of the 1997 Bragg Life Tables

A note on Pricing

Table of Contents

Introduction
Description of Data
Other Super-Jumbo (Band 9) Experience Not in Study
Policy Size Group Experience Summary
Typical Underwriting Requirements
Description of Standard Data Display
Determination of Results by Numbers of Policies
Transformation To and From 75-80 Basic Select
Comparison With Previous Studies
Band 9 Super-Jumbo Extended Results
Discussion of Results
Summary and Conclusions

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Introduction

This is a study of Standard Ordinary mortality experience by amount group. The experience period is 1990 - 1994.
The study is of direct business written, whether reinsured or not.
The authors believe that this is the first time that a study has been made of all amount groups (not just large amounts).|
The results, which are remarkable, will be of great interest for pricing and for reinsurance purposes.
The results are presented in very great detail, and constitute a raw data bank which can be researched by users of this study.
The authors have included a study of typical underwriting requirements for each amount group.

Description of Data

Exposures total $ 1.234 trillion. Actual deaths total $ 2.141 billion. Results are subdivided by sex and smoking status.
The data are for select durations 1 - 15 only. No Ultimate data are presented. The data are for Standard Ordinary single life business.
Results are presented by amounts of insurance.
However, the authors estimate that the number of policy years exposed is approximately 27,000,000 , and the number of actual death claims is approximately 68,000.

Data are primarily for the United States.
However, there are some Canadian data included.

Information in this report is generally provided in great detail by size group, age, sex, duration, and smoking status.
The authors are aware that there are a very small number of cells where the death amounts (or even in fewer cases the exposure amounts)
do not seem consistent with the size group involved. Believing that there can be legitimate explanations such as changes after issue, compromise settlements, etc.
the authors have left all such cells unchanged, as reported to us.

Data are provided for the following size bands:

1.

< 10,000

2.

10,000 - 24,999

3.

25,000 - 49,999

4.

50,000 - 99,999

5.

100,000 - 249,999

6.

250,000 -  999,999

7.

1,000,000 - 2,999,999

8.

3,000,000 - 4,999,999

9.

5,000,000 and over

 

Not all of the contributing companies were able to contribute data for every one of the 9 amount bands.
This means that the overall distribution of business by amount band, as shown in this report,
should not be considered as "typical" for the industry.

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Description of Standard Data Display

Results of this study are generally shown on the standard data display sheets used internally at Bragg Associates for all studies. The display is shown on two sheets of paper. Colloquially, we refer to these as "white green sheets", referring to the fact that they were originally shown on old-fashioned green computer paper.

Page 1 : Exposed, Actual Deaths|

Page 2 : Expected Deaths by '91 Bragg Life Tables, A/E Loss Ratio

The information is shown for quin issue age groups and for durational groupings 1-2; 3-5; 6-10; 11-15. Down totals and cross totals are shown.

For purposes of this study, all information is by amount of insurance. However, information by number of claims (for purposes of credibility studies) is addressed separately in this report.

Exposures have been slightly adjusted (in the manner described in our annual Mortality/AIDS/Persistency reports) so that the information is reflective on an age-nearest-birthday basis at the central ages shown. The bulges in data at decennial ages such as 25, 35, 45 etc. reflect the fact that some data are reported in 10 year age groupings such as 20 - 29, 30 - 39, etc. Other data are reported in 5 year groupings such as 1$ -22, 23 - 27, etc.

The standard data display pages ("white green sheets" ) included in this report are uniformly grouped as follows:

2 Combined sheets
2 Male Nonsmoker sheets 2 Male Smoker sheets
2 Female Nonsmoker sheets 2 Female Smoker sheets

The "combined" sheets (known colloquially as "fifth sheets" ) are the sums of the other four sheets.
A standard bundle therefore consists of 10 pages.

David G. W. Bragg
Copyright 2006 John M. Bragg and Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.                                                   
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Revised: 06/15/10.